France 2–3 Goals vs Morocco

France are one of the most reliable goal-scoring machines at this tournament — and the 2–3 goals band at 2.15 is sitting at nearly double the implied probability.

Over their last 10 matches, France have scored exactly 2 or 3 goals in 7 of them. That's a 70% hit rate against a market that's only pricing in a 46% chance.

Sweden 3–0 · Iraq 3–0 · Senegal 3–1 · Northern Ireland 3–1 · Colombia 3–1 · Azerbaijan 3–1 · Brazil 2–1

Four goals against Norway is the outlier. One goal against Paraguay and Ivory Coast are the misses — both tight, low-tempo games against deep defensive blocks.

Morocco are not Paraguay. They press high, they commit players forward, they create — which means space on the counter. That's exactly the environment where France hit their rhythm: controlled, efficient, 2 or 3 and done.

With Mbappé in the form he's in and the French attack clicking at every level, a 2–3 goal output is the most likely single outcome range on the board.

At 2.15, this is a value bet.